Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jun 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jun 2024	168	007
16 Jun 2024	170	016
17 Jun 2024	172	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.3 flare peaking at 06:26 UTC on June 15, associated with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3712 (beta- gamma-delta) being the most complex one. NOAA AR 3702 has rotated behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3717 has emerged in the north-west quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 09:06 UTC on June 14, in the south-west quadrant. No associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was found in the available coronagraph imagery. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 21:48 UTC on June 14 in the north-east quadrant, near the central meridian. No associated CME is currently found in the available coronagraph imagery, but further analysis is ongoing. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

The equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole has fully crossed the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Solar wind

A shock was detected in the solar wind data (DSCOVR and ACE) around 11:05 UTC on June 15. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 14 nT, the Bz component from -5 nT to -11 nT and the solar wind speed jumped from 360 km/s to 437 km/s and in-creased up to 460 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock increased from 3.75 ppcc to 9.9 ppcc. The shock could be related to an early interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival, probably associated with the CME detected at 23:32 UTC on June 12. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Further enhancements in the solar wind may be expected starting from June 16 due to another ICME arrival and the high-speed stream arrival from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL between 0 and 3). Mostly quiet to active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the arrival of the glancing blow of the coronal mass ejection observed at 23:32 UTC on June 12 and the high- speed stream arrival from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 148, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	169
10cm solar flux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	158 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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