Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 June 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jun 22 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Jun 2024	200	004
23 Jun 2024	200	019
24 Jun 2024	200	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class and M-class flares. The largest flares was an M9.9 flare originating from NOAA active region 3719 and peaking at 05:55 UTC on June 22. The two other flares were an M1.3 flare from a new or returning region on the east limb peaking at 04:38 UTC on June 22 and an M1.0 flare from NOAA active region 3720 peaking at 11:06 UTC on June 22. There are currently seven sunspot groups on the disc with NOAA active region 3720 producing most of the flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a small chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 00:12 UTC on June 22. This event is likely the result of two CMEs erupting simultaneously. The ejection in the eastward direction shows an estimated projected speed of about 1000 km/s and is likely originating from a region on the far side of the Sun. The other ejection, in the south-southwest direction, is much slower and is not expected to reach Earth. Besides this halo CME, no Earth-directed CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images over the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A large north midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity, which has crossed the central meridian on June 18 is on geoeffective location, now in the west side of the sun.

Solar wind

Solar wind conditions have returned to slow wind regime in the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from around 400 km/s to 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 6 nT and the Bz component varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in a slow solar wind regime. Then the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is expected to reach Earth in the next period.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 0-2, K BEL 1-2). Later, active conditions to minor storm may be observed later in the next period, in response of the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 147, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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