Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/2005Z from Region 3730 (S18W85). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul,
07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 03/2221Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 04/1911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
04/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 173 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 175/172/168 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |