Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 July 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jul 18 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
18 Jul 2024209008
19 Jul 2024200015
20 Jul 2024190008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two double M2 flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 8) emitted an M2.0 at 17 Jul 19:58 UTC and NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 12) produced an M2.2 at 18 Jul 10:14 UTC. For the next 24 hours further isolated M-class activity is likely, either from NOAA AR 3751 or the group of NOAA AR 3743, 3758, 3745, 3747. There is also a small chance of an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained typical of the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 400 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 7 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a three-hour period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3). They are expected to rise to unsettled or possible active levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 287, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux224
AK Chambon La Forêt009
AK Wingst007
Estimated Ap007
Estimated international sunspot number278 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
17194019511953N11W46M1.21N08/3753
17195319582004----M2.008/3753
18100410141020----M2.212/3751
18102010271031----M2.0--/----

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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