Viewing archive of Monday, 5 August 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Aug 05 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Aug 2024	238	024
06 Aug 2024	238	019
07 Aug 2024	243	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with five M-class flares. The strongest was an impulsive M6.1 flare peaking at 05:23 UTC on August 05, from newly numbered NOAA AR 3780 ,which has rotated onto the disk over the south-east limb. This region was also responsible for 3 further M-class flares over the period and appears to be a complex region but is difficult to analyse due to its location near the limb. In addition to NOAA AR 3780, NOAA AR 3772 and NOAA AR 3774 (beta-gamma-delta) remain the most complex regions on the disk. Two further new regions were numbered, NOAA AR 3779 that emerged just below NOAA AR 3774 and NOAA AR 3781 in the north-east, but were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes

A negative polarity coronal hole began to transit the central meridian on August 05.

Solar wind

The solar wind conditions indicated the arrival of an ICME, likely from the glancing blow predicted from the August 01 CME. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 21 nT with a minimum value of -17nT. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of around 500 km/s early on August 05. Waning ICME affects are expected over the next 24 hours, slowly returning to nominal conditions on August 06.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 7-) and minor storm levels locally (K BEL 5) between 15:00 – 18:00 UTC on August 04, due to an ICME arrival. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at active levels in the next 24 hours, with possible further minor storm intervals possible while the ICME influence is ongoing.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 216, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	241
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	037
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	237 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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