Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 August 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Aug 07 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Aug 2024	270	011
08 Aug 2024	274	015
09 Aug 2024	270	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an M1.8 flare peaking at 02:21 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3774, which also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 02:28 UTC. The second was an M1.1 flare with peak time 04:57 UTC August 07, associated with NOAA AR 3781. NOAA AR3780 is the largest and one of the most complex regions on the disk (beta gamma delta). NOAA AR 3774 (beta gamma delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta gamma) also increased in size and complexity, while NOAA AR 3772 decayed slightly. A new region rotated onto disk and was numbered NOAA AR 3782 but has been quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

An eruption was visible in SDO/AIA 193 from NOAA AR 3775 around 01:20 UTC August 07 and was associated with a Coronal Mass Ejection observed to the north-west in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 02:00 UTC August 07. Initial analysis suggests this is not expected to be earth directed. A further two CMEs are visible to the east and south east around 03:00 UTC in LASCO-C2 data, however no on-disk source has been identified and these are considered likely to be back-sided.

Coronal holes

A small positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole began to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere on August 07.

Solar wind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 5 nT with a minimum value of -4nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Generally slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, there is a small chance of minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field on August 08 to 09 due to the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 5, and a possible weak shock from the partial halo CME of August 05.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours, with possible active intervals on August 08 to 09 in response to any minor enhancements in the solar wind.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 273, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	270
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	246 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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