Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 September 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Sep 15 1521 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
15 Sep 2024173021
16 Sep 2024177012
17 Sep 2024180008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an X4.5 flare registered at 14 Sep 15:29 UTC. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3825 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 1) produced most of the flaring activity including the X-class flare. In the next 24 hours NOAA AR 3825 is expected to produce M-class flaring activity and there is a good chance of an X-class flare from the same AR.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO and COR2/STEREO-A images as launced at 14 Sep 15:36 UTC. It is associated with the X4.5 flare of 14 Sep 15:29 and is expected to become geo-effective at the first half of 17 Sep.

Solar wind

Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) during the past 24 hours. The SW speed raised from 380 km/s to 580 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 4 and 10 nT during the past 24 hours. The North- South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -9 and 7 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be affected by a glancing blow from the Coronal Mass Ejection launched at 13 Sep 01:30 UTC.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active (NOAA Kp 2 to 4+) during the past 24 hours. Locally the geomagnetic conditions where milder, registering quiet to active levels (K BEL 1 to 3). A glancing blow from a the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of 13 Sep is expected to have a minor effect and the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at active levels.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, increased significantly but did not exceeded the 1000 pfu alert level. The increased levels are most likely linked to the X4.5 flare of 14 Sep 15:29 UTC and its associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the 10 pfu alert level in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, registered values around the 1000 pfu threshold levels during the past 24 hours. More specifically the greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert level from 14 Sep 19:30 UTC to 15 Sep 00:50 UTC and again from 15 Sep 06:30 UTC to 06:50 UTC, and peaked to 2400 pfu at 15 Sep 06:40 UTC. For the next 24 hours the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to gradually drop and hence remain below the alert level. The 24h electron fluence although increased, remained at normal levels (ie below the 5e7 pfu threshold) during the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours it is expected to drop marginally.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux172
AK Chambon La Forêt020
AK Wingst017
Estimated Ap020
Estimated international sunspot number118 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
14151315291547S15E56X4.52B01/3825

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2025/04/01M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/27Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
Last 30 days128.1 -22.5

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X28.5
22001X2.01
32001X1.59
42014M9.35
52017M8.22
DstG
11960-272G3
21973-173G3
32001-101G1
41976-101G1
51994-96G3
*since 1994

Social networks