Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 September 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Sep 19 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Sep 2024	162	016
20 Sep 2024	164	011
21 Sep 2024	164	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are seven numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3825 (beta- gamma-delta) remaining the largest and most complex region. Most of the flaring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma), which is now approaching the west limb, NOAA AR 3825 and NOAA AR 3829 (beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be predominantly at low levels over the coming days with 50% chances of M-class flares and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly perturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 9.4 nT with Bz as low as - 8.8 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 375 km/s to 532 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed in the upcoming days under the possible influence of two mild high speed stream arrivals.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were predominantly quiet to active with an isolated minor geomagnetic storm registered by the global Kp index between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on Sept 18th. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with small chances for further isolated minor storms are expected over the next days.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has returned to nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 108, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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