Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/2046Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep,
24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 21/0218Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/0426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1817Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1587 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 158 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 175.7 +9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 164.2 +19.1 |