Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
25/1555Z from Region 3836 (S10E45). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 25/0815Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/0400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 25/0846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (28
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 174 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 172/168/166 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 024/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 019/025-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |