Issued: 2024 Sep 29 1232 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
29 Sep 2024 | 195 | 019 |
30 Sep 2024 | 197 | 017 |
01 Oct 2024 | 199 | 007 |
Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare is ongoing (currently around C6), from a returning region rotating into view from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 244 (NOAA Active Region 3836) currently located at S12E05 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
SIDC Coronal Hole 65, a small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth in the next 24 hours.
The Earth is inside a slow solar wind stream, with speeds around 350 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 5 nT. A mild high speed solar wind stream may arrive in the next 24 hours.
The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp up to 3). Active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 164, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 195 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 015 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 008 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 164 - Based on 22 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
None |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
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