Viewing archive of Friday, 4 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
04/0455Z from Region 3842 (S15W21). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06
Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 04/0214Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
04/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
04/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06
Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Oct). Protons
have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 291 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 290/280/280 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 039/065-041/068-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 85% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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