Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 06 1255 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Oct 2024	265	043
07 Oct 2024	263	058
08 Oct 2024	261	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and 4 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2235) peaking on October 05 at 23:20 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Regions 3823, 3842). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC 257 is the most complex region (beta-gamma- delta magnetic configuration) and it was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

Further analysis of a faint coronal mass ejections (CME) detected at 04:13 UTC on Oct 04 in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data, with a projected speed of about 550 km/s and a projected width of 114 degree (as detected by CACTUS tool), shows that it may impact the Earth on Oct 07. It was possibly associated to two eruptions on the SW quadrant of the Sun. The first eruption was below the SIDC 273 (NOAA AR 3844) starting from 03:00 UTC on Oct 04. The second eruption was associated with a M4.0 flare, which peaked at 04:55 UTC on Oct 04, produced by the SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA AR 3842, S16 W17). The southward dimming associated with the flare was also observed. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Solar wind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) arrival. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 06:47 UTC on Oct 06. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased from 8 nT to 13 nT, the solar wind speed increased from 415 km/s to 465 km/s, and the solar wind density at the shock increased from 1.4/cm3 to 2.4/cm3. The shock is related to an ICME arrival associated with one of the CMEs that was detected on Oct 01-03. The solar wind speed ranged from 350 km/s to 530 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 nT and 15 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 nT to 15 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters, associated with further arrival of more ICMEs (CMEs observed on Oct 03-04) and high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Oct 04, are expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1 to 2). Locally over Belgium, it increased to unsettled conditions from 06:00 UTC to 09:00 UTC on Oct 06 due to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) associated with one of the CMEs that was detected on Oct 01-03. In the next 24 hours, active to major storm conditions are possible due to the possible arrival of more ICMEs (associated to CMEs observed on Oct 03-04) and high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Oct 04.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 169, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	277
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	187 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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