Viewing archive of Monday, 7 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
07/1913Z from Region 3842 (S15W63). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 07/0344Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 07/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 219 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (10
Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Oct)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (09 Oct,
10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 277 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 260/255/250 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 030/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 022/030-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 7Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1747Strong far side CME 322jsoc 64
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |