Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Oct 2024	164	022
23 Oct 2024	166	024
24 Oct 2024	168	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was very low with no significant flares being detected in the last 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Region 3863; beta-delta) being the most complex one. SIDC Sunspot Group 285 (NOAA Active Region 3856; beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3868) is currently rotating on disk from the south-east limb. Some further active regions behind the east limb seem to be approaching the visible disc. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A small equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 71) is currently crossing the central meridian. The associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from October 25.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 350 km/s to 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Oct 22- 23 due to arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Oct 18.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet globally (NOAA Kp: 0 to 2) and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (K-BEL: 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated active periods due to possible high-speed stream arrival associated with the positive polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 121, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	162 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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