Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 December 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Dec 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Dec 2024	175	007
06 Dec 2024	173	007
07 Dec 2024	171	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with several C-class flares and five M-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M2.5 flare (SIDC Flare 2806), peaking at 10:40 UTC on December 5. It was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906; beta-gamma), which also produced an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2804), peaking at 08:20 UTC on December 5. This region is expected to rotate over the west limb within the next few hours. There are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917; beta) produced two M-class flares: an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2803), peaking at 07:09 UTC on December 5, and an M1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2805), peaking at 21:05 UTC on December 4. SIDC Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active Region 3916; beta) produced the remaining M-class flare, an M1.3 flare (SIDC Flare 2794), which peaked at 20:46 UTC on December 4. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912; beta-gamma) is currently the largest and most complex region on the disk but has remained quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and have not shown any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60) has been crossing the central meridian since December 4. The associated high speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from December 7.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected near-slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 500 km/s to values about 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Dec 07-08 due to possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Dec 04.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1 to 2, K-Bel: 1 to 2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance that the proton flux may increase in response to strong flaring from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	185
10cm solar flux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	127 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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