Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
09/1612Z from Region 3912 (S06W75). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on day two (11 Dec) and expected to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day three (12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0732Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 09/1058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
08/2317Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Dec, 11 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 172 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 010/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Our Sun can possibly produce a Superflare roughly every 100 years? 46Strong far side CME 273CMEs 12/14-12/15 2024 16Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 93Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1342
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/15 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 99.5 -53 |
| Last 30 days | 117.6 -37.8 |