Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1414Z from Region 3934 (N13E47). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 22/1817Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/0001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/2135Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 22/0625Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 681 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Dec,
24 Dec, 25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 223 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 008/008-008/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 16 January 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 4 January 2025
Sunspot region 3947, X-class solar flares
Monday, 30 December 2024
Two earth-directed coronal mass ejections
Latest forum messages
Penticton down? 701/21/2025 AR 3967 M3.3 CME 2The Terminator Theory and Implications for growth of Cycle 25 64AR 3967 32Filaments and prominences 615
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/21 | M3.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 145.2 -9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +45.8 |