Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
25/0449Z from Region 3932 (S18E01). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 25/0052Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/0435Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 25/0255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 772 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 253 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 250/250/255 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 020/025-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/26 | M7.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 119.3 -33.2 |
| Last 30 days | 122 -35.7 |