Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/2141Z from Region 3936 (N13W84). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 02/0905Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 02/0936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 02/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 422 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (03 Jan) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 212 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 048/126 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/012-014/018-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 65% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/06 | M4.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 179.4 +24.9 |
| Last 30 days | 150.6 +26 |