Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
04/1248Z from Region 3947 (N09E41). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 04/2026Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 04/1137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 04/0559Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 04/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 209 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 022/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 4 January 2025
Sunspot region 3947, X-class solar flares
Monday, 30 December 2024
Two earth-directed coronal mass ejections
Sunday, 29 December 2024
Strong G3 geoamagnetic storm watch issued
Latest forum messages
AR13939 2025/01/04 CME 50Strong far side CME 356AR 3947 161correcting common misconceptions about space weather 2606/01/2025 M 4.87 flare with a faint CME 2
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/06 | M4.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 175.2 +20.7 |
| Last 30 days | 150.7 +26.1 |