Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 January 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2025 Jan 23 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Jan 2025	200	011
24 Jan 2025	195	051
25 Jan 2025	190	063

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C9.2 flare peaking at 02:03 UTC on Jan 23, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 is the most complex region with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 11:36 UTC on Jan 22. This CME was associated with a M1.3 flare, which peaked at 11:08 UTC on Jan 22, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961, S16 W15) and the filament eruptions near the same AR. Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 10:58 UTC during the flaring activity. Associated southward coronal dimming and the EUV wave were also observed. It has a projected speed of about 600 km/s. With its source region closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Jan 25. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Solar wind parameters have transitioned from fast to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 km/s to 490 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 to 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, unless the glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the SE limb of the Sun on Jan 21 enhances the solar wind.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible if the Earth experiences glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the SE limb of the Sun on Jan 21.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached above the 1000 pfu threshold level at 15:10 UTC and dropped below the threshold level at 19:10 UTC on Jan 22. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 15:10 UTC on Jan 22 and dropped below the threshold level at 01:00 UTC on Jan 23. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 163, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	158
10cm solar flux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	147 - Based on 05 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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