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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
27/0812Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Jan) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Jan,
30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 27/0124Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/1240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
27/1240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2531 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (28 Jan, 30 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 162 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 005/005-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/29 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 145.3 -9.2 |
| Last 30 days | 145.9 +11.5 |