Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 February 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2025 Feb 04 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Feb 2025	221	012
05 Feb 2025	223	017
06 Feb 2025	225	024

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at high levels, with 8 M-class flares and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M6.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3480) peaking at 13:18 UTC on February 03, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that has grown in size and remains magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta-gamma). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 389 (NOAA Active Region 3979; beta) is expected to rotate over the west limb in the next hours. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 23:24 UTC on February 02, directed primarily to the east from Earth's perspective. The CME is likely associated with an M4.1 flare produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow cannot be discarded on the second half of February 06.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (from ACE and DSCOVR) have reflected a return to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 10 nT to 6 nT, and the solar wind speed ranged between 410 km/s and 480 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 7 nT, remaining mainly positive. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next day, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 04 due to a glancing blow associated with the CME of January 31.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-2; K-Bel: 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet, with a small chance of reaching active conditions over the next 24 hours, due to possible CME arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 171, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	173 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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