Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1242Z from Region 4007 (S12E20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28
Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 26/2037Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 26/1231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 26/0505Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 25/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Feb, 01 Mar)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Feb) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 180 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 008/010-017/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/25 | M3.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/02/27 | Kp6- (G2) |
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