Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2025 Feb 27 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Feb 2025	178	039
28 Feb 2025	176	039
01 Mar 2025	176	025

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The flaring activity was dominated by SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 3996) which has a beta magnetic type configuration and is currently located at the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006), SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998) and SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000) are all classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, but only SIDC Sunspot Group 408 has contributed to the low levels of activity. The remaining active regions are mostly simple and have either exhibited decay and/or remained quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with likely M-class flares and a small chance for an isolated X-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections

The CME related to the on disc filament eruption as reported on Feb 26 is estimated to have a small Earth-directed component. A possible glancing blow from it might be expected on Feb 28. It will most probably be mixed within the ongoing high speed stream and might remain undistinguishable in the in situ solar wind data. No other Earth-directed CME are observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes

One of the three positive polarity coronal holes, which first crossed the central meridian on Feb 25 is still residing on the central meridian. The high speed streams emanating from these coronal holes is expected to continuously impact the Earth over the next 3-4 days.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions related to a high speed stream (HSS) arrival. This appears to be an early arrival of the HSS related to several positive polarity coronal holes which first crossed the central meridian on Feb 25. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 20 nT with a minimum Bz of -11.5 nT. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 676 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next few days under the ongoing influence of high speed streams, possibly mixed with a glancing blow arrival on Feb 28.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were predominantly quiet to active with a single minor storm levels reached over Belgium in the interval 11-12 UTC on Feb 27. Moderate storm conditions were registered globally in the interval 09-12 UTC on Feb 27 with NOAA Kp reaching 5.76. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms might be expected on Feb 27 and Feb 28 with an ongoing high speed stream arrival and possible glancing blow ICME arrival on Feb 28.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has continued to decrease towards background levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and start increasing in the upcoming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and might increase towards moderate levels on Mar 01.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Feb 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	114 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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