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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar,
15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 11/2108Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 12/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 12/0915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2606 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 160 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 019/026-015/018-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/11 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/09 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 112.5 -42.1 |
| Last 30 days | 140.4 -7 |