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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jan 03 1220 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 03 Jan 2014 until 05 Jan 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
03 Jan 2014160010
04 Jan 2014163017
05 Jan 2014163008

Bulletin

The Sun produced seven C flares and one M flare during the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 1944 has grown in size and evolved to a beta-gamma region. NOAA AR 1936 shows some decay and is approaching the west limb. More M flares are possible (probability 50%), especially from NOAA ARs 1936 and 1944. There is a slight chance for an X flare (15%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Solar wind speed measured by ACE reached a maximum of 650 km/s, but has now declined to about 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field declined from 8 to 4 nT, with a Bz- component varying between -6 and +5 nT. Estimated NOAA Kp and local K_Izmiran reached a maximum of 5 due to the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (Kp and K_Izmiran 2 to 3). Unsettled to minor storm conditions (local K 3 to 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of the CMEs of December 29 and December 31.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 100, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux161
AK Chambon La Forêt025
AK Wingst023
Estimated Ap024
Estimated international sunspot number097 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
02221222182222S05E72M1.21N--/1944

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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