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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jan 30 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 30 Jan 2014 until 01 Feb 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
30 Jan 2014160003
31 Jan 2014162004
01 Feb 2014164009

Bulletin

Solar activity has been at active levels over the last 24 hours. 11 C- and 2 M-class flares were recorded, which nearly all originated in the mixed polarity region near NOAA 1967's main spot. The strongest was an M2-flare peaking at 06:39UT. Of note was also a long duration C7-flare starting at 14:11UT and ending at 16:36UT. So far, this LDE was the most energetic in terms of NOAA 1967's integrated flare flux history. NOAA 1968 was the only other active region being able to produce a C-flare (C3 peaking at 04:46UT). The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a slight chance on an X-class flare. The CMEs associated with NOAA 1967's flaring activity were directed to the East and away from Earth. A faint halo CME was observed early on 29 January. Though it may be related to the frontside filament eruption event early on 29 January (trailing NOAA 1960 and 1959), it may also be related to a backside event that took place about an hour earlier (late 28 January, around 22:50UT) in the same line of sight. Most recent, but incomplete STEREO-A data now seem to favor the latter scenario. Earth is exiting the high speed wind stream. Solar wind has returned to average conditions, with a speed near 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Solar wind may continue to be modulated by the effects of small coronal holes that have passed the central meridian on 27 and 29 January. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected. Late on 1 February, any effects of the 29 January frontside CME may drive local geomagnetic conditions to isolated active levels. Otherwise, quiet conditions should persist.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania107
10cm solar flux156
AK Chambon La Forêt011
AK Wingst006
Estimated Ap006
Estimated international sunspot number065 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
30063306390644S15E54M2.1SF28/1967
30075408110841S12E52M1.1SF6928/1967III/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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