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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jan 31 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 31 Jan 2014 until 02 Feb 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
31 Jan 2014163002
01 Feb 2014165006
02 Feb 2014166024

Bulletin

Solar activity has been at active levels over the last 24 hours. 6 C- and 1 M-class flares were recorded, all originating from NOAA 1967. The strongest was an M6-flare peaking at 16:11UT. The sunspot region still has a few magnetic delta structures. The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a slight chance on an X-class flare. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 starting at 08:12UT. It was most probably associated to the M2-class event that took place in NOAA 1967 (maximum at 06:39UT). It has a slow speed of about 350 km/s. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 starting 16:12UT. It was associated to the M6-flare, and had an initial plane-of-sky speed of 1735 km/s (latest CACTUS result). The bulk of the CME was directed away (to the southeast) from Earth. It is very likely this CME will overtake the partial halo CME of the M2-event. Solar wind parameters are currently at average levels, with a speed near 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. For the next 24 hours, solar wind may continue to be modulated by the effects of small coronal holes that have passed the central meridian on 27 and 29 January. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for that period. Late on 1 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the 29 January CME, but little geomagnetic disturbances are expected. This may change upon the arrival of the CME from the M6-event, which is currently foreseen for the morning of 2 February. This may result in active geomagnetic conditions, with locally a minor storm possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux161
AK Chambon La Forêt004
AK Wingst002
Estimated Ap003
Estimated international sunspot number074 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
30154816111628S13E58M6.62N22028/1967VI/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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