Emesso: 2014 Feb 01 1231 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
01 Feb 2014 | 168 | 005 |
02 Feb 2014 | 170 | 021 |
03 Feb 2014 | 172 | 003 |
Numerous C- and 3 M-class flares were recorded over the last 24 hours, mostly originating from NOAA 1967. This region has three magnetic delta structures: two near the main spot, and one near the top of the region. The latter was the location of the strongest flare this period (M3 peaking at 07:23UT). One M-flare had NOAA 1968 as its source (M1 peaking at 15:42UT), which has developed more small spots of opposite polarity in its interior. This M1-flare was associated to a partial halo CME with a plane- of-sky speed of 460 km/s. The bulk of the CME was directed to the northeast. The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a chance on an X-class flare. Solar wind speed has been varying between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. For the next 24 hours, active geomagnetic conditions with a slight chance on minor storm levels are expected, in particular due to the arrival of the M6 CME (30 January) which is currently foreseen for the morning of 2 February. On 4 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the partial halo CME that originated in NOAA 1968 (31 January).
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 05 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 166 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 003 |
AK Wingst | 001 |
Estimated Ap | 001 |
Estimated international sunspot number | /// - Based on /// stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Fine | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 | 1532 | 1542 | 1553 | ---- | M1.1 | 27/1968 | |||
01 | 0119 | 0125 | 0138 | S11E26 | M1.0 | 1F | 28/1967 | ||
01 | 0714 | 0723 | 0736 | S11E23 | M3.0 | 1B | 28/1967 | VI/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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