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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jan 05 1227 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 05 Jan 2014 until 07 Jan 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
05 Jan 2014240005
06 Jan 2014250006
07 Jan 2014250007

Bulletin

Two C flares and two M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. A long duration M4.0 flare occurred in the western part of NOAA AR 11944 on January 4 with peak time at 19:46 UT. An associated CME is mainly propagating southward, but more properties are difficult to determine due to a data gap in STEREO and LASCO imagery. NOAA AR 11944 continued to grow in size and number of sunspots. It currently has a beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. A long duration M2.0 flare erupted on January 4 with peak time at 22:52 UT. The source region for this event is NOAA AR 11936, currently located at the west limb. A related CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and STEREO B coronagraphic imagery (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 23:12 UT). Based on the current observations, the CME is mainly propagating in the northwest direction with an estimated projected speed of 520 km/s. A glancing blow might arrive at Earth on January 8 around 0:00 UT. The >10 MeV proton flux was enhanced during the past 12 hours, but remained below the threshold level. The flaring chances for the next 48 hours are high: 90% for C flares, 70% for M flares. There is also some chance for an X flare (20%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Current solar wind speed measured by ACE is around 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remains around 4 to 6 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K=0 to 2) to unsettled (K=3) (estimated NOAA Kp 1 to 2 and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux215
AK Chambon La Forêt008
AK Wingst006
Estimated Ap005
Estimated international sunspot number092 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
04190519462023----M4.0550--/----VI/2IV/1
04221222522322----M1.9--/1936

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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