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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2014 Jan 04 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 04 Jan 2014 until 06 Jan 2014
Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
04 Jan 2014192005
05 Jan 2014195005
06 Jan 2014195004

Bulletin

Five C flares and three M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was an M1.3 flare with a peak time on January 4 at 10:25 UTC. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 1944 has shown some growth in size and number of sunspots. NOAA AR 1937 has also grown and produced one C4.0 flare peaking on January 3 at 18:35 UTC. The chances for C flares are high (90%). Also more M flares are possible (probability 50%), especially from NOAA AR 1944. There is a slight chance for an X flare (15%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speed measured by ACE varied from 450 to 550 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is stable around 4 to 6 nT, with a fluctuating Bz- component varying between -6 and +5 nT. No signatures of any ICME arrival has been detected yet. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (estimated NOAA Kp and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 101, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux182
AK Chambon La Forêt014
AK Wingst010
Estimated Ap010
Estimated international sunspot number107 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
03124112501254----M1.0--/1944III/1
03210921142119S06E56M1.1SF--/1944
04101610251041S04E48M1.31N140--/1944

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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