Viewing archive of Monday, 8 July 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JUL 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7978 (S10W24) PRO-
DUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS
A C1/SF AT 0900Z. THE GROUP EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT EMERGENCE
OF MAGNETIC FLUX OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS FLUX EMERGENCE
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A REMARKABLE INCREASE IN SPOT AREA FROM
30 TO 210 MILLIONTHS OF A SOLAR HEMISPHERE. THE EMERGENCE
OF NEGATIVE POLARITY SPOTS THAT HAVE COMBINED WITH A CENTRAL,
POSITIVE POLARITY PORTION OF THE REGION HAVE LED TO THE FORM-
ATION OF A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 7978.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED AT HIGH
LATITUDES FROM 0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JUL to 11 JUL
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 JUL 082 Predicted 09 JUL-11 JUL 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 08 JUL 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUL 012/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUL 011/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUL-11 JUL 010/008-010/008-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JUL to 11 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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