Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUL 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO AN X2.6/1B AT 09/0911Z FROM REGION 7978 (S10W37). THIS FLARE ROSE IMPULSIVELY AND FELL QUICKLY OFF MAXIMUM BUT THE OVERALL DECAY WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS LONG. A 10 CM BURST OF 1100 F.U. WAS OBSERVED BUT NO TYPE II OR IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURSTS WERE SEEN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CME WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 7978 ALSO PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 09/0144Z. THE RAPID EMERGENCE OF REGION 7978 REPORTED ON 08 JUL BEGAN TO ABATE DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED. (NOTE: THIS IS THE FIRST X-CLASS FLARE SINCE NOV 1992.)
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE. REGION 7978 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS AS IT CONTINUES TO EMERGE AT ITS SLACKENED PACE. A REPEAT OF AN X-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. AT ISSUE TIME, NO ENERGETIC PROTONS HAD BEEN OBSERVED FROM THE X2 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. AFTER THIS LONG OF A DELAY, IT IS UNLIKELY SIGNIFICANT FLUXES WILL APPEAR.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 11 JUL. FOLLOWING THAT TIME, AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12 JUL, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE FLARE AND POSSIBLE CME MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE ON 11 JUL AND EARLY ON 12 JUL.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
Class M50%40%30%
Class X15%10%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 JUL  084
  Predicted   10 JUL-12 JUL  083/082/080
  90 Day Mean        09 JUL  070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 JUL  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  008/008-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%40%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%40%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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