Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUL 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO AN X2.6/1B AT
09/0911Z FROM REGION 7978 (S10W37). THIS FLARE ROSE IMPULSIVELY
AND FELL QUICKLY OFF MAXIMUM BUT THE OVERALL DECAY WAS ABOUT
TWO HOURS LONG. A 10 CM BURST OF 1100 F.U. WAS OBSERVED BUT NO
TYPE II OR IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURSTS WERE SEEN. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A CME WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION
7978 ALSO PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 09/0144Z. THE RAPID EMERGENCE OF
REGION 7978 REPORTED ON 08 JUL BEGAN TO ABATE DURING
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED. (NOTE: THIS IS THE FIRST X-CLASS
FLARE SINCE NOV 1992.)
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 7978 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
EVENTS AS IT CONTINUES TO EMERGE AT ITS SLACKENED PACE. A
REPEAT OF AN X-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION IS A POSSIBILITY
BUT NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. AT
ISSUE TIME, NO ENERGETIC PROTONS HAD BEEN OBSERVED FROM THE
X2 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. AFTER THIS LONG OF A DELAY, IT IS
UNLIKELY SIGNIFICANT FLUXES WILL APPEAR.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF 11 JUL. FOLLOWING THAT TIME, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 12 JUL, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST
DUE TO THE FLARE AND POSSIBLE CME MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE ON 11 JUL AND
EARLY ON 12 JUL.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 JUL 084 Predicted 10 JUL-12 JUL 083/082/080 90 Day Mean 09 JUL 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL 012/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL 005/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL 008/008-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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