Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE LATTER HALF. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IS THE CAUSE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO CORONAL HOLE STREAMS IMPACTING THE EARTH. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 SEP  070
  Predicted   28 SEP-30 SEP  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        27 SEP  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 SEP  024/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  015/015-018/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm20%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm20%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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