Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 NOV 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 7995 (S00E05), 7997 (N08E50), AND 7998 (S14E46), REMAIN STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND FALLING OFF TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 NOV  072
  Predicted   18 NOV-20 NOV  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        17 NOV  070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 NOV  005/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  015/020-020/025-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%50%25%
Minor storm20%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%25%
Minor storm20%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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