Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 December 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 DEC 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. BOTH SPOTTED REGIONS, 8003 (S29W74) AND 8004 (N06E33), WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAD PERIODS OF HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 DEC  083
  Predicted   15 DEC-17 DEC  084/082/082
  90 Day Mean        14 DEC  073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 DEC  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  003/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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