Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E33)
CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, WHILE PRODUCING
THE ONLY OBSERVED C-CLASS EVENT, A C1/0F AT 0636Z. A SECOND
UNSEEN C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 1546Z. 7999'S EVOLUTION, COUPLED
WITH GROWTH IN THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION, 7997 (N05W40), DROVE
THE 10.7 CM FLUX TO ITS HIGHEST VALUE SINCE OCTOBER 12, 1995.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM REGION
7999.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A RECURRENT
HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO FUEL THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 NOV 091 Predicted 24 NOV-26 NOV 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 23 NOV 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 NOV 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV 004/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV 010/008-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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