Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 November 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 NOV 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E33) CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, WHILE PRODUCING THE ONLY OBSERVED C-CLASS EVENT, A C1/0F AT 0636Z. A SECOND UNSEEN C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 1546Z. 7999'S EVOLUTION, COUPLED WITH GROWTH IN THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION, 7997 (N05W40), DROVE THE 10.7 CM FLUX TO ITS HIGHEST VALUE SINCE OCTOBER 12, 1995.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM REGION 7999.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A RECURRENT HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO FUEL THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 NOV  091
  Predicted   24 NOV-26 NOV  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        23 NOV  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 NOV  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV  004/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV  010/008-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 NOV to 26 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%50%20%
Minor storm05%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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