Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 November 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 NOV 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04E19) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, BUT AT A HIGHER CADENCE THAN YESTERDAY. THE REGION DOUBLED IN SPOT AREA TO 33O MILLIONTHS, AND SHOWS FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION, 7997 (N05W54), WAS QUIET AND STABLE. SOHO FE XII IMAGERY INDICATE A POSSIBLE CME FROM A SITE JUST SOUTH OF REGION 7997 AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z. THE ARCADE SPANNED THE EQUATOR, CONNECTING TO NEAR S15. THE 10.7 CM FLUX REACHED THE HIGHEST DAILY VALUE SINCE MARCH 3, 1994.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 7999 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO GEOPHYSICAL RESPONSE TO TODAY'S CME IS PREDICTED.
III. Event Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 NOV  100
  Predicted   25 NOV-27 NOV  105/100/095
  90 Day Mean        24 NOV  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 NOV  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  015/008-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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