Viewing archive of Monday, 17 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
LEVELS. UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED BETWEEN
17/0600-1200Z. THE ONLY POSSIBLE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS A
VERY SLOW DISSOLUTION OF A FILAMENT NEAR N08E29 ON 13 FEB. AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE, THE FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 FEB to 20 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 FEB 073 Predicted 18 FEB-20 FEB 073/073/075 90 Day Mean 17 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 FEB 010/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB 014/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB 010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 FEB to 20 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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