Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 February 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8018 (N08W60), A TWO SPOT 'BXO' ALPHA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. ACTIVITY ON DAY THREE IS EXPECTED TO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 FEB 073
  Predicted   19 FEB-21 FEB  073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        18 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB  014/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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