Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE DUE TO AN IMPULSIVE M1/1N FLARE FROM REGION 8076 (N27W41) AT 02/1230Z. MINOR CENTIMETER RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. REGION 8076 WAS GENERALLY STABLE. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES CONTINUED IN SEVERAL AREAS OF THIS REGION ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGH MAGNETIC GRADIENTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW. REGION 8076 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. REPORTS WERE RECEIVED OF A CORONAL MORETON WAVE AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN M1/OF EVENT FROM REGION 8076 AT 29/2332Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MAGNETOSPHERE IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER.
III. Event Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 SEP 092
  Predicted   03 SEP-05 SEP  092/092/089
  90 Day Mean        02 SEP 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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