Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8088 (S29W55) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C2/SF AT 29/1624Z. THIS REGION
IS DECAYING SLOWLY. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8089 (N20W44) IS
ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE SCATTERED PLAGE AND A LONG WINDING
FILAMENT CHANNEL. TODAY'S 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX VALUE (90 SFU) WAS
MEASURED DURING A B6 X-RAY FLARE AND COULD BE ENHANCED ABOVE THE
BACKGROUND LEVEL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8088.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 SEP 090 Predicted 30 SEP-02 OCT 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 29 SEP 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT 010/008-010/008-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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