Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8088 (S29W67) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB AS A 4-SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP. NEW REGION
8090 (S27E69), A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW, WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION
8088.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE
INTERVAL 20/0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS
RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH, CROSSING THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT
APPROXIMATELY 20/1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY ON DAYS
TWO AND THREE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 01 OCT to 03 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 SEP 088 Predicted 01 OCT-03 OCT 088/090/092 90 Day Mean 30 SEP 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT 015/008-010/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 OCT to 03 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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