Viewing archive of Monday, 8 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8083 (S28W09) PRODUCED A M1/SF FLARE AT 08/1938Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAMETRIC RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 220 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. TODAY'S OBSERVED PENTICTON 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX (119 SFU) IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCED FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 8084 (N21E26) IS EXPERIENCING EXTREMELY RAPID GROWTH, INCREASING SUNSPOT AREA SEVERAL FOLD AND DEVELOPING PENUMBRA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARE-BRIGHT FLUCTUATIONS AND SUBFLARES AS IT EMERGES. REGION 8085 (S25E53) CONTINUES TO GROW AS WELL AND IS PRESENTLY AN F-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085. ANOTHER SMALL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THESE REGIONS BUT IS NOT THOUGHT TO BE IMMINENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MANY STATIONS FROM ABOUT 08/1400-1700Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 SEP 119
  Predicted   09 SEP-11 SEP  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        08 SEP 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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