Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL B-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8088 (S29W30) CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8088. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IN 8088 AS WELL. MAJOR
FLARES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNLESS THE RATE OF DECAY IN 8088 ACCELERATES
APPRECIABLY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA
DOES NOT YET CLEARLY INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED SHOCK FROM
THE CME'S OBSERVED ON SEP 23-24.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, INCREASING TO STORM CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON
23-24 SEP.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 SEP 088 Predicted 28 SEP-30 SEP 086/086/084 90 Day Mean 27 SEP 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 030/020-020/020-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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