Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8143 (S36W17), CURRENTLY
A 10-SPOT 'FSO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP, GENERATED A SINGLE C1/SF EVENT AT
29/0150Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY PROBABLE FROM REGION 8143.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A DECREASE TO MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JAN to 01 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 JAN 094 Predicted 30 JAN-01 FEB 094/093/091 90 Day Mean 29 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JAN 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JAN 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JAN-01 FEB 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JAN to 01 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 03% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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