Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 January 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY EVENT WAS DETECTED AT 28/0253Z. THERE ARE CURRENTLY FIVE ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WITH REGION 8143 (S36W04) BEING THE MOST COMPLEX AS A 17-SPOT 'FAI' BETA-GAMMA. ALL ACTIVE REGIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING, IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CME DETECTED ON 25 JANUARY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 JAN 097
  Predicted   29 JAN-31 JAN  098/098/098
  90 Day Mean        28 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN  020/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active60%50%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active70%60%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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