Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8164 (N16E01) CONTINUED
A PERIOD OF GROWTH THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY, AND DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL
D-TYPE GROUP. IT PRODUCED AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE AROUND
MID-PERIOD. A 19 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING 23/2058 -
2155UT. IT WAS LAST SEEN AT N22W06. NEW REGIONS 8166 (N22W25) AND
8167 (S27E17) WERE NUMBERED
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8164 IS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE
PRODUCTION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 FEB 099 Predicted 25 FEB-27 FEB 098/096/094 90 Day Mean 24 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB 012/015-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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