Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8164 (N16E01) CONTINUED A PERIOD OF GROWTH THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY, AND DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL D-TYPE GROUP. IT PRODUCED AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE AROUND MID-PERIOD. A 19 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING 23/2058 - 2155UT. IT WAS LAST SEEN AT N22W06. NEW REGIONS 8166 (N22W25) AND 8167 (S27E17) WERE NUMBERED
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8164 IS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 FEB 099
  Predicted   25 FEB-27 FEB  098/096/094
  90 Day Mean        24 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB  012/015-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 FEB to 27 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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